I can’t imagine any two words with worse repercussions, but “unprecedented collapse” would have to rank right up there. Statistics on the 2007 winter Chinook estimates this year’s run has dwindled to only 90,000 fish.

These are the fish returning to California and Oregon waterways, likely to curtail fishing in more ways than just slim numbers, it may prompt fisheries managers and legislators to intervene.

There appears to be “an unprecedented collapse” in the number of chinook salmon that returned to spawn in the Central Valley last fall, according to an internal memo from the head of a fisheries agency who warned of sharp fishing restrictions when the commercial season opens in May.

Considering the 2003 run was 804,000, 2006 estimated at 277,000 fish, a one year decline of 66% has everyone shrugging their shoulders.

Salmon that spawn in Central Valley rivers form the backbone of the West Coast’s commercial and recreational salmon fishery and are caught by fisherman as far north as British Columbia.

Many possibilities exist to account for the sudden decline, crucial information that hasn’t been released, but most mention the lack of “krill” required to feed juvenile salmon. There’s little doubt we’ll hear more on this shortly, especially when they kill the commercial salmon season altogether.

What is particularly ominous is the lack of two year old “Jacks” – only 2000 have been seen to date among the current 90,000 returnees. The Jack count is viewed as an indicator of next year’s potential harvest, based on this count there won’t be a next year.

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