Tackle Trade World has a small article outlining the rapidity by which European salons adopted hair extensions and the demise of Europe’s stock of Grizzly hackle (PG 46) – due to the hair extension craze. The only real news is the article documents that which I’ve feared most, they’ve moved from saddles to necks …
“Turrall has received a surge in enquiries for Metz necks worldwide, with individuals wanting to buy thousands of capes. Metz’s hatchery reported ample stocks of most neck colours and grades on June 15th. Thirty days later they were gone.”
Quick to capitalize on the meteoric price increases, and counting on the split-second attention span of the fashion conscious, fly tiers and shops have recovered from their initial outrage-disbelief and intent on unloading their extra Whiting saddles for the $400 plus bounties paid in tertiary markets, like eBay. 
While it’s perfectly prudent to offload extra materials at usurious prices, what they’ve actually done is blur the line between “old timey loyal fly tying customers” and those horrid interlopers, the beauty salons.
Everyone is out to make a buck … and Keough and Whiting know it.
As a result both Mssrs. Metz, Keough and Whiting have the luxury of ignoring their former audience, simply because BOTH shops and anglers are cashing in on what few feathers are sent through traditional channels.
“We are conscious of preserving the interests of individual fly tyers as well as our own production, but it has become really hard. We have tried to ration supplies to our dealers to look after fly fishermen but we can’t police the final use.”
Unfortunately, absolutely everyone is going to get burnt, given that the vendors will be enjoying a couple years of enormous profits, and will quickly become used to the additional coin, both to grow production and pay off existing debt.
When the fad ends, the prices will likely remain high – possibly remaining near current levels, given there’s no competition in the market, and all vendors need do is cut production to match the increased demand as shops replace empty racks, and fly tiers restore those empty dry fly bins back to flush.
The economy has shown them exactly what the market will bear, and without new companies entering the field to keep prices low and competitive, and with most of the anglers having to substitute for their favorite flies – there’ll be no reason to return to former prices.
Those of you who fish dry flies nearly exclusively should bear this in mind.
A five dollar fly might be the best conservation tool ever devised. Catching the bushes on the opposite bank, maybe the Average Joe would rather wade through good trout water than lose yet another five-buck dry.
Hey, I’m trying to be positive here…
It’s certainly likely to sell a lot of studs for wading shoes, as anglers scramble across the fast water to free the errant Humpy.
Friends have may quite a killing on ebay of late. I have hung onto my stash thinking I could never afford to replace what little (of the really good stuff) I have should this trend continue.
I also have resisted the temptation to sell what saddles I have. People are niave at best to believe that pricing will return to any sense of normal. I will be fishing more caparaduns as my stash dwindles.
I think the market prices will swing back. Even if the feather fashion thing endures, current prices will quickly bring competition into the market especially from Asia. Also, during this time many folks will find alternatives. I can’t recall the last time I tied a full hackle dry. All manner of hair and fur are more effective in my opinion. Whiting et al will likely see the market soften and prices will move south though I expect at some level above where they’ve been historically.
No question that this issue will bring new fans to Comparaduns, Swisher & Richards No Hackles, and hackless emergers, but it takes years to breed chickens, and years more to grow roosters.
It’s not that it can’t be done so much as we’re not likely to see any competition for a decade. Asia and India will no doubt reintroduce necks to shops – but they’ve never had a Plymouth Rock Grizzly, and have only Chinchilla chickens.
Somewhere there’s an Indian or Chinese breeder, or possibly even a stateside breeder, sitting on a big old pile of chicken saddles ready to flood the market with cheap feathers when the fad dies. Metz, Whiting, et al can sell a few necks for two or three hundred a piece, but the guy selling for 60 or 80 is going to sell a lot more. If Tom Whiting wants to remain in business, he’ll have to adjust his prices to match.
While fly fishermen tend to overspend on gear, these hackles are truly an elastic product when it comes to price. If the price is too high, no one will buy it, especialy casual fly guys. If I can’t find hackle for even a woolly bugger, or it’s too expensive, screw it, I’m not wasting my money; I’ll go back to Zoom Brush Hogs and Mepps spinners for smallmouth.
Plus there is a ban on importing feathers from asia because of the avian flu scare a few years back. So I am not sure how much will see in “relief” from overseas.
WOW! I used to be in a position at a major fly-fishing retailer. I probably have 20 metz #1 #@ capes, and multitudes of of multi-colored grizzly hackle. Times sure are tough, but, when I stare at my bushel sized tupperware full of feathers I cannot lower myself to resorting to ebaby. Don’t tie many traditonal dry-flies anymore (commercial tying and being full-time in a mail-order business will burn you out). Mostly I fish emergers and nymphs so I could sell some, but, I refuse to. Can’t these “hair weave people” use the hairs of mules ass or something? geez. I’m glad I already have a near lifetime supply of these. Whew! YET ANOTHER SIGN OF THE DEGREDATION OF MANKIND ON THE PLANET! Should they get listed on the futures exchange now. Something should replace prok bellies! love you blog! Good night from SW VA (home of hillbilly trout)
Whiting et. al should be more nervous than anything. The bump in price ought to be enough to raise the eyebrows of a few farmers with empty coops. It’ll take time, but at $300 per saddle you can expect it.
Hell, even I’m wondering where to find a grizzly bird or two.
To be fair, didn’t Whiting’s try to maintain it’s loyal fly fishing base by selling some inventory to fly shops, only to abandon the effort when the shops immediately put them on ebay for top dollar? I’m feeling like this is the tulip market of the modern age (not exactly a direct parallel, but you get my drift) and prices will adjust but not all the way to old levels and not as quick as we’d like. KB is right in that new market entrants face two large barriers to entry – cost and time. I would imagine it takes a very long time to breed a flock that’s anything close to a Grade 1, and by then its anyone’s guess where prices will be. Economics is the study of human action; for as much as I might whine about the cost of hackles, I have been sorely tempted to sell a a couple of pelts for some ridiculous price and take the wife on a nice weekend to Anchorage (my economic choice being the opportunity cost of poorly utilized feathers that end up looking little better than pocket lint vs. marital bliss…).
Maybe this will drive someone, somewhere to develop a synthetic alternative…for us or the hairdressers
M