The only thing we can agree on is no one is speaking with certainty. In simplistic terms the entire financial debacle was the “deleveraging” of the financial systems mix of  assets and liabilities from nearly 30-1, to the government recommended model of 10-1.

Economists suggest that until the consumer does likewise, paying off about 30% of their existing liabilities, things won’t be improving anytime soon.

“America is redefining what is normal,” says Edward Callaway, CEO of Callaway Gardens, a popular golf-and-swimming resort near Columbus, Ga. “What’s normal is a lot more frugal, a lot less extravagant than it used to be.”

Given that preamble, fishing tackle sales are reported to be robust, state park campgrounds are replacing exotic venues, and folks are staying closer to home – as gas prices continue to increase.

Many people may skip expensive trips and go fishing instead, says Michael Brooks, CEO of Ardent, a Macon, Mo.-based company that makes fishing gear. Sales at his privately held firm are up 200% in the past year, he says. “The recession is making people think twice about where they’re spending their recreational dollars,” he says.

Recreation dollars or subsistence dollars is the real question, as even MSNBC’s favorite stock market “talking head,” Jim Cramer is touting “the garden effect,” buying stocks in seed companies and the folks that makes Roundup.

This “new frugal” smacks of putting free chow on the table versus a true surge in Outdoors appreciation, and us fly fishermen aren’t likely to be the “new normal” – as we’re still wandering around releasing food and complaining about other folks stepping on our insects.

We’ll never be normal, I’m proud to say.

The high end merchants are a likely barometer for our rod industry – as all those new rod sales are most likely Uglysticks, and not the fancy stuff.

Neiman Marcus, whose sales declined 25% in the first quarter of 2009,  Tiffany’s (after laying off 10% of their workforce), lost 22% of same store sales, and Aberchrombie & Fitch reported a 24% decline..

With known layoffs at Winston, Orvis and Gudebrod, Bass Pro, and others, with us practitioners reluctant to drive further away, the economics are still pretty bleak – but may be building toward a less crowded vacation – for those that are still able.

The Brethren aren’t faring too well. My notes from the eBay study of 2007, suggest the number of used Hardy reels for sale are up a staggering 50% – and prices are up in the face of this glut, not down. Folks are struggling to make mortgage payments and The Precious is sold reluctantly – for prices nearing unrealistic.

Ditto for most of the major reel makers and fine rods – fly fishing items offered are up double digits across the board. Orvis eBay rods are showing in greater numbers, up 31% – and a lot of that is Orvis bamboo, suggesting anglers are selling the high end items – and fishing the yeoman graphite offering.

Not too pleasant, but don’t start counting your discounts anytime soon, with a fiat currency, the fourth horseman, Inflation – is rounding the final turn – and the thousand dollar fly rod will be here for awhile.